Rise of the Robots
Book review
Reading time: 3 mins
Martin Ford is a technologist and futurist writer with a background in west coast software engineering. In 2015 his second book, Rise of the Robots, won the prestigious FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year, prompting a global debate about its conclusions.
Rise of the Robots became a
must-read for anyone concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on
society. In a wide-ranging and
well-researched survey of the relationship between technological progress and economic
history, Ford extrapolates his logic to paint a disturbing future.
Ford argues that, unlike all previous technological
revolutions, AI will fail to generate an increase in shared national
wealth. In fact, there will be very high
levels of unemployment. The AI
revolution is different, he claims, because of the way it is expected to transform
the workplace, undermining the skills and experience which workers have acquired
through years of education and employment, resulting in either low-paid
drudgery or, more likely, workless poverty.
This is not entirely speculative, because some of the
skilled work already being performed by AI includes: technical writing and
journalism (who wrote this review?), legal research, drug dispensing, art and
visual design, financial trading, translating and teaching. If we add to this the millions of susceptible
lower-skilled manufacturing and service jobs, such as driving (clearly doomed),
then the scope and scale of the challenge becomes obvious. In a nutshell, Ford is predicting a jobs
apocalypse.
Hence,
with the impending loss of an employment-based economy, society must consider a
new socio-economic paradigm. The first
priority is to support the population financially. There are both humanitarian and economic
grounds for doing this because, as personal incomes decline, markets for goods
and services will become unsustainable.
Hence, Ford’s solution is the Universal Basic Income: a guaranteed
minimum salary for every citizen.
The
Basic Income concept has been a topic of debate for many years. There have even been small scale trials, and Switzerland
recently held a national referendum on the issue. Hence, Ford’s argument cannot be dismissed
too readily.
Of
course, not everyone is in agreement with Ford.
Many would argue, for instance, that AI will destroy existing jobs while simultaneously creating equal numbers of new employment opportunities. History shows that all previous
technological revolutions have done this.
The challenge is being able to foresee the new types of employment which
AI will create.
When
industrial machinery was developed in the 18th Century, no one
foresaw the millions of workers who would soon be needed to operate railways,
build roads, drill for oil, maintain home appliances, and so on.
Surely
if AI creates, as expected, substantially higher levels of economic wealth and
new types of products, this will stimulate additional demand for goods and services. It’s true that many of these will be produced
and distributed by automated processes, but many more will involve machines augmenting the work of real people.
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| Author: Martin Ford |
A
similar point was recently made in Frank, Roehrig and Pring’s What To Do When Machines Do Everything
(Cambridge University Press). Far from creating
mass unemployment, they foresee a net
increase in jobs arising from AI’s general economic stimulus and its
ability to support workers in their current roles.
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So, in spite of his impressive levels of research and an accessible writing style, Ford’s argument appears to fall short. AI’s impact on employment remains to be seen, but his Basic Income solution is frustratingly short on detail. Indeed, this section feels like an afterthought, perhaps demanded by the publishers. A proposal as radical as Basic Income surely needs to be bolstered by both a powerful economic (and psychological) theory, plus heavyweight computer modelling. Only then could the feasibility of a state-backed income-for-all achieve a reasonable level of credibility. One suspects that Basic Income supporters may have already attempted to generate such evidence, and then buried the disappointing results. Presumably if this form of wealth re-distribution were viable, Ford’s flair for research would have enabled him to present more evidence for it.
Without
doubt, The Rise of the Robots makes for
an intellectually stimulating read. It
forces the reader to question some fundamental life choices, such as higher
education, career options, skills development and personal finances. If you’re going to read it, prepare for some sleepless
nights and lengthy debates with friends.
The Rise of the Robots is
published by Oneworld and available from all major retailers.
Martin Ford currently works as an author, speaker and
adviser. His personal website is here: https://econfuture.wordpress.com/
Email: p.moar@moar.com
Twitter: @MoarPart
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