The Signals Are Talking
Book review
The Signals Are Talking
by Amy Webb
published by Public Affairs
Reading time: 2 mins
The author(s)
Amy Webb is a futurist writer and academic at New York
University (NYU) Stern School of Business.
She is also Founder of the Future Today Institute, which promotes the
techniques described in The Signals are
Talking (TSAT).
In a nutshell
TSAT offers a methodology for analysing today’s
technology trends with the aim of identifying those most likely to produce
mainstream products in the “far” future.
It is written in a non-academic style, accessible to anyone familiar
with the most talked about technologies of the past three or four decades.
Scope and scale
The book tackles a large and relatively nebulous subject,
namely the factors determining whether a technology sticks (or twists). There is some historical narrative going back
decades, even hundreds of years, but the focus is largely 21st Century and digital.
Webb doesn’t make too many predictions for the future, but that's not the purpose of the book, which is designed to assist the reader in the challenging task of forecasting product development to support business and investment strategies.
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| Author: Amy Webb |
Writing style
Although written by a member of NYU faculty, TSAT is not
an academic work. It’s style is closer
to that of a technology journalist. For
example, most of the references are from the internet and other accessible
sources.
Likes
While reading this book, the reader is compelled to
consider the technological futures we will experience in the coming decades and
the factors determining their evolutionary speed and direction.
There is also a reproducible method for analysing
emerging or ‘fringe’ technologies and mapping their futures. The author is professionally engaged in
promoting this approach, which she has been developing for around 10 years.
The book also contains some historically interesting case
studies which may fill a few gaps in the reader’s knowledge. These include the rise and occasional fall of digital
empires, such as Nintendo, Sony, Uber, Google and DEC.
Dislikes
A common gripe about business books is that they are
often too long and fail to nail down one, clear takeaway message. TSAT is yet another example of this
publishing pandemic. Although less than
300 pages long, the book occasionally wanders off topic for 5 or 10 pages at a
time and one feels that 250 pages would have been more than sufficient for a
clear exposition of the methodology.
A little less focus on digital engineering, including the
usual suspects (Google, Uber, et al), could have led to stimulating
diversions into other engineering sectors: chemical, electrical, mechanical,
civil, and so on. For the methodology to
be accepted as universally applicable, this is surely necessary.
Finally, and this is more of a personal preference, I
would have appreciated a more academic bent to the book. We all stand on the shoulders of giants. Hence, any fresh thinking should, in my view,
be prefaced by an acknowledgement of the great thinkers responsible for bringing
us to where we are today. A critical
review of pre-existing futurist methodologies (I've heard of The Delphi Method, but there must be others), would
have set the stage for a new approach worthy of empirical stress testing. Far from convincing this particular reader, the book has only
succeeded in pricking my curiosity about other futurist methodologies. Webb’s approach is therefore not the slam dunk it could
have been.
Implications for
government and the state
Democratic politicians inevitably take one step at a time, concentrating on where next to place their feet. They are like ants, great at foraging within
reach, but unable to see a rapidly descending boot. Timescales beyond their own careers
are rarely contemplated. This is
not a criticism of democratic politics, it’s an observation.
Therefore, it is surely independent government officials (civil
servants) who must look towards our technological horizons in order to advise
those who hold political power. This cannot
be haphazard; it needs a
methodology. Perhaps this book offers them a
valid approach.
Discussion points
Clearly, one must ask whether Webb’s technique for
charting technological futures is valid?
By implication, the jury will now be out for at least 20 to 30 years,
but the reader will want to form an instant judgement.
Is futurology futile?
As a ‘science’ (it is an "ology") is it doomed by the knowable
unkowns of human existence, by the black swans which we can be sure will approach from left-field?
Would the reader, or a business leader, pay for the services of a futurist
consultant?
If there is one discussion we can all participate
in, it’s our own theories and assumptions about the future. Where will we be in 30 years time? What technologies will we hold in our hands or wear on our
faces? Possibly nothing at all. How will we communicate with other
people? Will artificial general
intelligence (AGI) have arrived? Will
society be thriving…or sinking in a technological dystopia?
Who will appreciate
reading this book?
Anyone
with an interest in technology, from product designers and developers to business
owners, investors and policy-makers. Management
and strategy consultants may wish to apply or incorporate some of Webb’s ideas in their client
projects.
Who will not appreciate
this book?
Anyone looking for an academically rigorous foundation
for analysing and predicting technological futures.
Overall impressions
A relatively light, but stimulating read, which some
strategy consultants may wish to sell to clients.
Email: p.moar@moar.com
Twitter:
@MoarPart
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